QPSA predicted +0.1786 vs market on 1/28/11. Has since fallen 61% vs market -0.2%. Seems the market changed its mind very rapidly and very aggressively. Clear example of numbers vs sentiment.
MTRX predicted -0.1094 vs market on 2/11/11. Has since increased 16.92% vs market decrease of -1.72%. Others agree - recent rise in crude prices, refiner crack spread etc directly affect this refiner servicer and market changed its mind.
SEED predicted +0.1579 vs market on 2/3/11. Has since fallen -19.05% vs market -0.73. It turns out the prediction is based on 9/30/10 stmts and not the latest 12/31/10 ones. The initial prediction was correct - pending new information which it lacks and it is indeed critical. The latest stmts indicate year-on-year decrease for the same qtr hence the price decline since those stmts were filed/published. In addition, we lack qtrly stmts basing the prediction on just the annual ones which indicate strong growth. Will change the system back to the initial 3 month timeframe - if no stmts within that timeframe then no prediction!
Monday, March 21, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Whooaa - what happened to the numbers!!?
Some of you (hopefully ;-) may have noticed the prediction range changed drastically. If you were trying to get a feel for the range in order to figure out real high and real low scorers then I apologize. We'll eventually settle into a frozen score range like +/-100 or whatever.
Well the change was warranted. I've said in the past that prices past latest statement date do not affect the prediction. Well that was a HUGE problem and it is now addressed - not entirely but well enough until the next round of models come along. It was even a problem for myself who could view the system logs and act on the prediction as soon as the system got the recently filed latest statements. For those who did not and looked one up weeks later anything was possible. The stock could have moved up or down a lot since the initial prediction date. And that makes all the difference.
Regardless, even with that handicap we've beat the S&P 500 by 0.78% per stock in the last month alone since I started tracking it in the Motley Fool CAPS - look up paranumeral. Well that is PER STOCK and I entered the maximum number of stocks I could enter one at a time without regard to the absolute value of the prediction; simply OUT/UNDERPERFORM based on +/-. And that is 200 so the total return is 167%. According to the Fool """A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P.""
Well the change was warranted. I've said in the past that prices past latest statement date do not affect the prediction. Well that was a HUGE problem and it is now addressed - not entirely but well enough until the next round of models come along. It was even a problem for myself who could view the system logs and act on the prediction as soon as the system got the recently filed latest statements. For those who did not and looked one up weeks later anything was possible. The stock could have moved up or down a lot since the initial prediction date. And that makes all the difference.
Regardless, even with that handicap we've beat the S&P 500 by 0.78% per stock in the last month alone since I started tracking it in the Motley Fool CAPS - look up paranumeral. Well that is PER STOCK and I entered the maximum number of stocks I could enter one at a time without regard to the absolute value of the prediction; simply OUT/UNDERPERFORM based on +/-. And that is 200 so the total return is 167%. According to the Fool """A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P.""
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