Monday, March 21, 2011

A quick look at the worst performing picks

QPSA predicted +0.1786 vs market on 1/28/11. Has since fallen 61% vs market -0.2%. Seems the market changed its mind very rapidly and very aggressively. Clear example of numbers vs sentiment.

MTRX predicted -0.1094 vs market on 2/11/11. Has since increased 16.92% vs market decrease of -1.72%. Others agree - recent rise in crude prices, refiner crack spread etc directly affect this refiner servicer and market changed its mind.

SEED predicted +0.1579 vs market on 2/3/11. Has since fallen -19.05% vs market -0.73. It turns out the prediction is based on 9/30/10 stmts and not the latest 12/31/10 ones. The initial prediction was correct - pending new information which it lacks and it is indeed critical. The latest stmts indicate year-on-year decrease for the same qtr hence the price decline since those stmts were filed/published. In addition, we lack qtrly stmts basing the prediction on just the annual ones which indicate strong growth. Will change the system back to the initial 3 month timeframe - if no stmts within that timeframe then no prediction!

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