Tuesday, May 3, 2011

New models

I have been actively building, analyzing and deploying new models based on the new infrastructure. In order to easily swap models in and out the feature calculation engine is now running on all cylinders - calculating all 650 features - and running a lot slower than before. Some used few, some - like the current one - used a lot of them.

Speaking of the current model; it is based on roughly 60,000 company statements, both quarterly and annual spanning 15 years; from December 31st, 1995 to December 31st, 2010. It makes good use of a couple of hundred features, mainly past relative price patterns and variations on dozens of measures of company strength versus peers.

The expanded date range (compare to previous models built on 5 years) provides the model with data points of various "markets" - bulls, bears, bubbles etc.

I ended all CAPS predictions so as to start fresh with these new models. Will most likely add functionality to the website which does similar tracking so I don't have to spend as much time just entering predictions manually in the Motley Fool CAPS.

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